Choices

“An executive is a person who always decides; sometimes he decides correctly, but he always decides.”

 

--John H. Patterson--

 

“The more alternatives, the more difficult the choice.”

 

--Abbe' D'Allanival--

 

“If you limit your choices only to what seems possible or reasonable, you disconnect yourself from what you truly want, and all that is left is a compromise.”

 

--Robert Fritz--

 

Although the Clintons have not received the memo the nomination process is about over.  Now the question has changed from who will be the nominee of the Democratic Party to who will be Barack Obama’s running mate.   A lot has been reported already about potential running mates for Barack Obama.  I will add my two cents.

 

I could write a short book on who would be the best running mate for Barack Obama, but this is an article not a book.  I will attempt to be brief in my analysis.  Most, if not all, presidential candidates choose a running mate because the running mate will give the nominee a better chance to win the general election than he/she would have on their own.  That usually means that the presidential candidate needs their running mate to help him/her win a key state or a few key states in the general election.  That is conventional wisdom.

 

Conventional wisdom dictates that Barack Obama should seriously look at the following four people as potential running mates: (1) Ted Strickland, (2) Hillary Clinton, (3) Ed Rendell, and (4) Kathleen Sebelius.  I will discuss each potential candidate.

 

 The next President of the United States will have “flipped” more swing states while retaining their own swing states than his/her opponent.  The battle ground for the Democratic Party in 2008 will be in the Midwest and the West.  The Democratic Party should forget the old, outdated strategy of shopping for a running mate from the south to “balance” the ticket.  They should instead campaign in all fifty states, but focus on the Midwest and the Western states.  That is where they can win, although a few southeastern states like Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia can be in play. 

 

The election may come down to what happens in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, Virginia, Florida, and North Carolina.  As the Democratic Nominee, Barack Obama must try to retain Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.  He must also “flip” enough states to gain eighteen (18) or more Electoral College votes.  Judging by the strong showing of the Democratic Party as compared to the Republican Party in Iowa, Missouri, Colorado, and Virginia, it is more than possible that Barack Obama can win those states in the general election on his own.  However, if Obama can win Florida, Ohio, or North Carolina and maintain the five democratic swing states, he can turn the general election from a squeaker into a blow out!

 

That is why Ted Strickland is probably the best choice for Barack Obama as a running mate.  Ted Strickland can provide a two edge sword to help win the general election.  He can help to provide a much needed win in Ohio.  He also has the pedigree to court the “blue collar” white vote in Pennsylvania and possibly Michigan, which may help to keep each state in the blue column.  That is just as important as the ability to deliver Ohio.  He is also an older politician with executive experience and a history of appealing to the moderate and even conservative electorate. 

 

Although Hillary Clinton may not be in as good of a position to help deliver Ohio as Governor Strickland, she still could be very helpful in helping to keep Ohio and Pennsylvania and to go after Florida.  The combination of keeping Pennsylvania and taking Ohio or Florida could make Obama an easy winner of the general election.  Hillary Clinton also has two things that Ted Strickland does not: Bill Clinton and she is a woman.  Barack Obama would get two attack dogs for the price of one by choosing Hillary Clinton as his running mate.  And the Clintons would be back in their element.  They would be able to play the race, gender, and class cards against the republicans, just the way they like it.  Plus, by choosing Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama may prevent John McCain from choosing Mayor Bloomberg as his running mate.  The major problem with choosing Hillary is the Clinton fatigue, the Hillary credibility gap, and once elected Obama would have to contend with two very vocal, very visible, and potentially uncontrollable vice-presidents for the price of one.

 

Ed Rendell would likely mean that Obama is a lock to retain Pennsylvania.  That alone is huge because Obama has a good chance to “flip” Iowa, Virginia, and Colorado on his own.  Plus Obama is likely to keep Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan (especially if McCain does not choose Romney as a running mate).  Therefore Obama needs to make certain that he keeps Pennsylvania and New Jersey, which Governor Rendell can help him to do. 

 

Many pundits have mentioned Governor Kathleen Sebelius as a good running mate for Barack Obama.  The electoral math does not support that theory.  However, the popular math may change that dynamic.  The long bitter primary race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama has left many older white women with some bitter feelings toward Barack Obama.  He will need their vote in many states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, New Jersey, Oregon, and Ohio to have a chance of winning in the general election.  Governor Sebelius could be the panacea to the bitterness that resulted from the primary fight between Clinton and Obama.  Governor Sebelius is a self made woman that can appeal to conservatives and “blue collar” whites and she could help to bring the female baby boomers that are Hillary Clinton supporters back into the blue column.  Governor Sebelius, a two term governor in a very red state that had the political courage to stand up for women’s choice, would be the perfect person to remind the angry baby boomers that if McCain gets into the White House then Roe v. Wade may become an endangered species.

 

I also feel compelled to at least mention two other intriguing candidates.  They are Claire McCaskill and Tim Kaine.  Barack Obama should run pretty strong in Missouri, but he may not be able to win the state on his own.  Claire McCaskill could be just what he needs to get over the hump to win Missouri and she could also help him with the bitter baby boomers that he will need to keep in the blue column in other states in order to win the general election.  Tim Kaine would likely make it a lock for Obama to win Virginia in the general election.  Virginia is not the size of Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania or Florida, but it would be a very good feather in Obama’s cap in the general election that could spell victory.  Plus Kaine’s pedigree could help Obama go after North Carolina and Georgia.